As of October 2026｜A profit can still lose to the market: two scores in 5384 simulated games
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October 17, 2026
Daniel LuFull-Stack Engineer | Content Creator
Absolute returns and market-relative outcomes describe different results.
Categories：Data & Insights
As of October 2026
Of 5384 trading simulations, 600 made a profit but finished below their market return; 528 lost money but finished above it. The sign of the final result leaves out the comparison with that game's market.
Cross the two measures
All simulated_trading records used here have ten rounds. Classify totalReturn by sign and compare it with marketReturn.
| Simulation outcome | Above market | Equal to market | Below market | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Positive return | 2,331 | 50 | 600 | 2,981 |
| Negative return | 528 | 73 | 1,802 | 2,403 |
There are 2981 profitable games; 600 underperform, or 20.13% of profitable games and 11.14% of all games. In total, 2859 outperform: 53.10%. These percentages answer different questions.
Alpha here is an arithmetic difference
Every record satisfies alpha = totalReturn − marketReturn, with maximum absolute error zero. This stored field is not a risk-adjusted investment metric. A loss can beat a larger market loss; a gain can trail a larger market gain.
What ten choices establish
Across 53840 rounds, actions are long 29680 times and short 24160 times. Paths, choices and repeat participation are not controlled. These are game records, not real financial accounts, and the aggregates do not validate a real investment strategy.